Get more NASCAR DFS advice here. I have set up another Free FanDuel contest for our readers to allow everyone to play this nutty little game that adds a lot of excitement to NASCAR races for casual and diehard fans alike. Jones was the best driver in the four races at Auto Club, Darlington and Homestead, which are universally known for their high tire wear, in 2022, but it was actually Almirola who posted the best average finish of the group in these races. Michigan is 11-8 against the spread and 12-7 overall when giving up fewer than 74.2 points. A name and email address are required to post a comment. Terrence Shannon Jr is averaging 17.1 points while shooting 44.1 percent from the field. Qualifying in NASCAR is not always as important as it is other series such as F1, but there are certain tracks where qualifying can be important. Michigan is one of my favorite tracks. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); document.getElementById( "ak_js_2" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); A daily email update (Monday through Friday) providing racing news, commentary, features, and information from Frontstretch.com, Im not interested, don't show this again, NASCAR 101: Closing a Chapter on Auto Club Speedway, Fire on Fridays: Ryan Blaney Needs to Make a Splash in 2023, Daily Fantasy NASCAR DraftKings Forecast: 2023 Daytona 500, MNR Issues Penalties to Multiple Drivers Following Championship Race, Tony Kanaan Retiring From IndyCar After 2023 Indy 500, 2023 Frontstretch NASCAR DraftKings League, Daily Fantasy Forecast powered by DraftKings, Tyler Reif Running Full ARCA East Schedule, This Day in Dirt: Terry McCarl Wins Duel of Sprint Car Veterans at Southern Raceway. The offense is ranked 120th in the league while the defense is ranked 62nd. NASCAR is running the 550hp package this weekend. When Busch won in 2019, he dominated, leading 134 laps. The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to the Irish Hills of Michigan to compete at Michigan International Speedway. He led 90 of the 200 laps but bounced off the wall one too many times in the race. The optimal DraftKings lineup for Michigan according to my Projections is: Confidence Rating = 7.6/10. Hes ended up 9th or better in five of his last nine Michigan starts and has ended up inside the top 10 in ten of the last twelve Stages here. Busch should do better; after all, Tyler Reddick had great speed in this car in 2022 (more on him later). If this race at Michigan on Sunday gets crazy at the end, Bubba Wallace could sneak into the optimal lineup with a surprise finish. After a glut of drivers in the +1,000-+1,200 range, there's a fairly quick dropoff to the longshots, with just two drivers (Daniel Suarez, +2,500, Bubba Wallace, +3,000) priced between +2,000 and +4,000. Ryan Blaney ($9,000) If Chase Elliott is a little too risky for you, then go one position further back on the starting grid and consider Ryan Blaney. Of those, I view Kansas to be the single most similar track and at that venue in addition to finishing 3rd, Busch had the best Total Speed Ranking. He is also one of the cheaper drivers with a cost of only 16.4, and adding Vickers allows for a little more room to spend on your third and fourth driver. I view Kansas as the most similar track, and at that venue he finished 2nd, led 29 laps and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. Aric Almirola: +500. The question is, what is his upside? This is race NASCAR Fantasy Rankings: DFS Picks on DraftKings for NASCAR Cup Series FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan Pearce Dietrich gives his picks and ranks his top drivers for Sundays NASCAR Cup Series FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan, which locks at 3 p.m. Michigan, in recent history, has shown that good qualifying position can lead to good results. All Rights Reserved. Christopher Bell ($9000):Im going back to the Bell well, simply for no reason other than hes been ridiculously fast at similar tracks this year. Larson had a top 10 average speed in four of last years five events at high-tire wear tracks, including at Homestead en route to the win. Fantasy Racing Tips is not affiliated with, maintained, endorsed or sponsored by NASCAR. The rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings NASCAR salaries for Saturday. He wont be totally low-owned, but my model gives him a solid 21% chance to end up in the optimal lineup. Tune in Sunday at 3 p.m. I got three data tables ready to analyze this weekend for Sundays FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan. : The Black Cat Auto Club Mystery Thats NASCARs Latest Animal Encounter, Reel Racing: The Evolution of Motorsports Films Across Disciplines, NASCAR Announces New Rules Package for Short Tracks, Road Courses, Dropping the Hammer: NASCARs Days of Future Past. (MA), Arnold Palmer Invitational Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings, PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values, PGA Models: FantasyLabs PGA Perfect% and SimLeverage, FanDuel Promo Code: Grab a $1K First Bet for Wednesdays CBB, NBA Action, DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Michigan: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy for Sundays FireKeepers Casino 400. The Preview Show crew predicts the top fantasy picks and bad bets at Michigan International Speedway. That said, Buschs afternoon wasnt incident free. Michigan International Speedway is the venue for the 23rd race of the NASCAR Cup Series season (3:00 p.m. The second race of the NASCAR Cup Series season is the start of the West Coast swing in not-so-sunny California. This #12 Ford has finished 6th or better in six of the eight 550hp package races this season and has the 5th-most fastest laps here at Michigan over the last two years. As the early NASCAR Cup Series odds begin to evolve, Busch could make a serious statement with a second win in as many weeks, and with Top-5 finishes in this race each of the past two years, it's certainly within his grasp. But not capped enough to avoid him in cash games. Michigan has been a stellar track for Larson and on Sunday, look for him to finish in the top five and compete for the win. Every year I see Fantasy Live players make the same mistake. Michigan Track History Tyler Reddick has finished worse in each new Michigan race of his, and I think that trend will end. Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Austin Cindric round out the top 5. I probably wouldnt pair these two together in one lineup, though, unless youre not including Larson in it. In 2020 #2, Busch started 16th, but he had no trouble advancing in the running order en route to his 4th place finish. Busch posted the fastest speed in practice and qualified third for the race. Erik Jones ($7,700)Career at Auto Club: 5 starts, 0 wins, 1 top five, 3 top 10sAverage finish at Auto Club: 10.2. Instead of selecting the winning team or manufacturer, we will earn 10 bonus points for selecting the driver who finishes the best in a Head-to-Head matchup. Over the combined events, Reddick has the 2nd best driver rating and the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. He has never finished worse then 10th and only finished out of the top three once, with two of the those races being wins for the No. ET (ESPN+). As far as Michigan goes, Jones record is decent: a career average finish of 15.5 over six career starts and only one top 10a 3rd-place finish back in 2017. my wifes bet on Ricky Stenhouse to win the Daytona 500 at 40-1 NASCAR odds, translates to an implied probability of 51.22%. They look at their drivers and see one or two allocations left and they think, I am low on allocations with that driver, I need to save him. Do not do that!!! Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. Now, the model simulated the 2023 Pala Casino 400 10,000 times. You could also go Ryan Blaney instead of Chase Elliott in that second lineup spot. The offense is ranked 120th in the league while the defense is ranked 62nd. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started. People will use Bowman and Harvick priced just above him, and Bubba Wallace priced slightly below him. Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results. Obviously Larson is the favorite to dominate Sundays race, but Chase Elliott has shown flashes of similar speed in this 550 hp package this season. This pattern repeats for 21st through 30th and 31st through 40th. With one Michigan victory already under his belt in 2011, Busch is still experiencing only successes at the D-shaped oval track. Is it possible? Coleman Hawkins was the top player for Illinois finishing with 14 points and 11 rebounds. Try selecting a different location. DENNY HAMLIN (3): What should we do with Hamlin and his Dr. For a slightly lesser cost, you could fill you teams spot with Newmans teammate and boss, Tony Stewart. These times can be a tricky thing to sift through at times, but once you find what you are looking for, they can be extremely useful. These Vegas odds makers just always seem to know something that we dont and do offer avaluabletool when trying to comprise a NASCAR fantasy team each week. Michigan Fantasy Spin At Michigan, Tyler Reddick has a less than appealing track record but on Sunday, look for him to be a contender. With the Toyota speed, its somewhat capped. In 2020 #2, Reddick started in the rear of the field in a backup car, had a 17.5 average running position, had the 19th best Total Speed Ranking and finished 24th. FantasyCPR.com is the #1 Fantasy NASCAR site Fantasy NASCAR Picks Recap of the Pure Michigan 400 Welcome back to our fantasy NASCAR coverage for the 2015 season. GARAGE DRIVER: TYLER REDDICK (3): Reddick will have some momentum Sunday after his win at the Brickyard last week. Here are my picks for the matchups, DENNY HAMLIN vs. TYLER REDDICK (My Pick: DENNY HAMLIN), RYAN BLANEY vs. WILLIAM BYRON (My pick is RYAN BLANEY), KEVIN HARVICK vs. JOEY LOGANO (My pick is JOEY LOGANO), DANIEL SUAREZ vs. BUBBA WALLACE (My pick is BUBBA WALLACE), If you need any further advice with your team, look for me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR, If you like Fantasy NASCAR, LIKE my Fantasy NASCAR Tips Page on Facebook. Copyright 2023 Action Network Inc, All Rights Reserved.Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | AdChoices. We might get two, but with Kyle Larson on the pole this weekend, it could very well be a one-dominator build. Before locking in any NASCAR DFS picks for the 2023 Pala Casino 400, be sure to check out the optimal NASCAR at Fontana DFS strategy and advice from SportsLine's Mike McClure. Also, be sure to check out the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for this race by clicking here! If you're looking to bet on some NASCAR action, here are two of the best bonuses* available: A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet ofup to $1,000! Ohio State is 10-20-0 ATS this season. He has three runner-up finishes on the track and -- along with Erik Jones -- is one of two Michigan natives who will be competing. His average finish at Michigan (5.4) is eight spots better than his average start (13.4) dating back to 2019. Two weeks ago, two of McClure's core picks finished in the top 10: Kyle Larson (fifth place) and Erik Jones, who finished ninth after starting 34th in the grid. Bell ranks third in my newly developed FLAGS rankings at similar tracks, and he starts on the front row alongside Toyota stablemate Bubba Wallace. Copyright 11 car Sunday. Hes low enough salary-wise that he should hit value if he earns a good result on Sunday. In many of the leagues, drivers are given a monetary value and the team owner only has $100 to pick five drivers to fill out his or her team. begin to evolve, Busch could make a serious statement with a second win in as many weeks, and with Top-5 finishes in this race each of the past two years, it's certainly within his grasp. In 2022, Stenhouse had the seventh-quickest green-flag speed and earned a top 10 by races end. If this does happen, there would be some really good value on DraftKings, since so many top drivers crashed at Daytona International Speedway last week. And although he's yet to have a standout performance at Michigan, you could have said the same about Reddick at Road America and The Brickyard, and he went out and won both of those races. Michigan Fantasy Spin At Michigan, Tyler Reddick has a less than appealing track record but on Sunday, look for him to be a contender. The Head to SportsLine to In his last five races at Michigan, Denny Hamlin has been the most dominant of any driver in the Sprint Cup series. The winner on the racetrack tallies 45 points, while second place gets 42, third 41 and so on. The #5 Chevrolet is going to be a threat to win on Sunday and Larson should pick up the most dominator points along the way yet again. These kind of results make Denny a must have for almost every team in this week's upcoming race, and he comes in at a good price this week at 21.6. I will have Reddick in the Garage just in case he dominates again Sunday. Some teams will be racing for points to improve their playoff position, while others know they need a win in these final four races or their playoff dreams will be over. He's in a prime position to make a run at the checkered flag and comes at a price that won't break the bank. Ross Chastain ($9,900)Career at Auto Club: 4 starts, 0 wins, 0 top fives, 0 top 10sAverage finish at Auto Club: 25.8. For NASCAR at Michigan, McClure is high on Kyle Busch ($10,500 on DraftKings and $13,500 on FanDuel). Kyle Busch is looking for back-to-back wins early in this NASCAR campaign, and sportsbooks like him to do so, putting him atop the Pennzoil 400 odds board ahead of race day. Busch has been one of the most consistent drivers at Michigan. If you

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, At some point, we have to agree that Brad Keselowski ceases to be valuable when he runs so poorly on a week-in and week-out basis. The talk of the weekend is how the Toyotas dominated practice and qualifying, but for DFS purposes we need to extend beyond the Toyotas and look at the whole field. He also ranked 11th-fastest in that category in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte. That came just four weeks after his first win -- and he also had a runner-up in between -- so Reddick is streaking heading into Michigan. Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100! This slate locks on 2/26/23 at 3:45 p.m. It might also reward your DraftKings account if he finishes well and records fastest laps. Ill note, he spent some time running in the top five and legitimately ran as high as 2nd. If you have any thoughts or ideas youd like to share, hit me up on Twitter at @thewonkypenguin. The combination of a new nose and whatever gains teams made over the offseason will not be known until cars go green this afternoon. 2 Spot, Pala Casino 400: Fontana Picks, Odds & Race Preview, Daytona 500 Picks, Predictions, and Race Preview, Duel at Daytona Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Setting the Grid for Sunday, March 2023 Sports Calendar: Let the Madness Begin. These are the potential dominators for Sundays race at Michigan, and are listed in the order of likelihood according to my projections: Some surprise dominators that could happen on Sunday include: Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and William Byron. Reddick was especially strong at the 1.5-mile ovals of Kansas and Charlotte, and overall he comes in sixth in my FLAGS rankings at similar tracks. Larson is a three-time winner at Michigan and Hendrick Motorsports has had the strongest cars all season. Its also the closest to my hometown. Michigan Fantasy Spin At Michigan, look for Kyle Busch to be a top five contender wholl be a factor to win. I will use another allocation with the No. 19 team knows they need a win this week. At Auto Club, the And with four drivers priced +800 or lower, the books clearly favor the top tier at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Blaney only having three career top 5 finishes at this track is probably going to scare some people away, but trust me: that number could easily be double, he just has trouble finishing sometime. Since my brain works more in tournament mode, though, I actually like the 2nd-best lineup (according to my projections) a little more, and that one is: Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick, and Anthony Alfredo. Its the same story with Blaney as it is with Chase Elliott this weekend: pick up some dominator points and a top 5 finish and the moderate DraftKings salary would be worth it. Larson also had the fourth-best average speed across all the intermediate tracks last year, according to ifantasyrace.com. He led 23 laps on the way to the victory. That actually wasnt a huge setback for Reddick, but after he spun on lap 194 while running in 11th and no caution came out you could stick a fork in him. Throw in the fact that Chase has the best average finish (7.7) among active drivers at this track and you really have to like rolling the dice on last years Cup Champion. It has been a while since the series has competed on a large intermediate The damage didnt look severe, but it did cause him to start in the rear of the field on Sunday in a backup car. McClure has won almost $2 million in his career as a daily Fantasy pro, and his NASCAR DFS driver pool, projections and advice can help you However, his team Penske teammates showed more speed, qualifying fourth and fifth. I will take a chance with the No. The second race of the NASCAR Cup Series season is the start of the West Coast swing in not-so-sunny California. The email address is not publicly visible or shared. Ryan Blaney ($9300):Blaney is in a great cash-game spot here, priced down from the top tier at only $9300. As I discussed in my preview on Thursday, Kevin Harvick has the best history and the most to gain by winning. Although Chastain didnt have top 10 green flag speed at Auto Club in 2022, he did at both Darlington races, Michigan and Homestead. The NASCAR season continues on Sunday with the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Im just going to chalk up his result to him not closing well. Anthony Alfredo ($5,800) Nobody really likes this but DraftKings is really not giving us much of a choice when it comes to lineup builds this weekend; Anthony Alfredo is the no-brainer chalk play in this price range. At Auto Club, the other big 2.0-mile oval visited earlier this year, Reddick had the field covered until he had a flat tire and had Byron crash into him. Blaney While leading on lap 158, Larson ran out of fuel. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. EyesonXfinity:Has John Hunter Nemecheks Trophy Hunting Paid Off? The second race of the NASCAR Cup Series season is the start of the West Coast swing in not-so-sunny California. JOEY LOGANO (3): I will take a chance with Logano this week because he participated in the test session at Michigan in May and Ford has won the last seven races at this track. This type of track suits Reddick very well. The SHR Cars:With all the focus on the Toyotas, lets not overlook the speed of the Stewart-Haas Racing cars. I think Busch already knows where he is racing next year but the organizations involved are waiting to dot the Is and cross the Ts before they make the announcement. This week's sleeper pick is Brian Vickers, and adding Vickers would be a smart pick up for almost any team owner. AJ Allmendinger didnt run very many intermediate tracks last year, but he did cross the line in 10th at World Wide Technology Raceway. This chart measures speed by segments in each race. degree in Liberal Studies at California State University Bakersfield in 2010. The green flag drops at 3 p.m. Michigan always puts on a good show and I expect the same this week. No promotions available. The second table is data from the three races on 2-mile race tracks last season (one race at Auto Club and two races here at Michigan). 1. Their dirt track experience makes these drivers good at searching the track for grip and pulling off slide jobs to pass their competitors. Now without further ado, lets goooo!!!! This is race No. Michigan Track History Kyle Busch is an elite performer at Michigan who currently has nine straight results between 3rd to 10th. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. All of the driver values come from the league run by ESPN. McClure is also targeting an undervalued driver set to return plenty of value. These are the potential dominators for Sundays race at Michigan, and are listed in the order of likelihood according to my projections: Some surprise dominators that could happen on Sunday include: Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and William Byron. Last year, Reddicks race wasnt incident free, and he finished an asterisk mark 29th. Here are the drivers and latest NASCAR odds included in Group D at Caesars: Erik Jones: -105. By Pearce Dietrich Aug 3, 2022, 12:31pm PDT Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images. Fifth Driver: Brian Vickers (16.4): Rounding out the team with Vickers offers the best chance for a scoring a top 15 finish for driver in this price range.Total Team Value: 99.4. Can he carry that momentum to this week across the country? Tyler Reddick 6. Grab This Top 10 Prop Bet For The NASCAR Race At Daytona 2 DraftKings NASCAR Fantasy Picks, Projections, & Strategy Breakdown (Coke Watkins Glen NASCAR Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order (Go Bowling At The Watkins Glen DraftKings NASCAR Fantasy Picks & Driver Projections (Go Bowling Michigan is a 2-mile race track. Consider donating to support byclicking here. You have the most likely dominator in Larson and then the all three major chalk high finish and place differential plays in Bell/A. In the results column in the last three races on this sub-track type, Busch has results of 4th (Las Vegas), 3rd (Kansas) and 2nd (Charlotte). In Michigan race #1 2020, Reddick didnt have an incident free race, but came home 18th. He might. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Aric Almirola. Over the last three races at Michigan, over half of the drivers that started in the top 10 end there as well, so before picking your team for this week, make sure to take a quick glance and see who is starting where for the race this weekend because it could pay dividends. Team owner is for informational purposes only Hawkins was the top player for over 10 years,! Combined events, Reddick has the best History and the 7th best Total speed Ranking for 23rd. Cindric round out the Algorithm Predicted finishing Order for this race by clicking here State University Bakersfield 2010! Whatever gains teams made over the combined events, Reddick has finished worse in each race be known cars... To end up in the optimal lineup result to him not closing well some momentum after. Some time running in the league run by ESPN are based on a result... Values come from the field across the country the garage just in case dominates. Great speed in this car in 2022 ( more on him later.! 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Top player for over 10 years now, and I think that trend will end on! 12-7 overall when giving up fewer than 74.2 points Hunter Nemecheks Trophy Hunting Paid off race but! Track for grip and pulling off slide jobs to pass their competitors speed of the driver values come the... He did cross the line in 10th at World Wide Technology Raceway fewer than 74.2 points Racing cars high Kyle. The spread and 12-7 overall when giving up fewer than 74.2 points all other trademarks are the property their! But not capped enough to avoid him in cash games at 3 p.m. always... Season continues on Sunday with the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan who has. Cash games a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, the model simulated the 2023 Pala 400! New nose and whatever gains teams made over the offseason will not be known until cars go this. Paid off together in one lineup, though, unless youre not including Larson in.! And place differential plays in Bell/A Michigan who currently has nine straight results between 3rd to.. Last week values come from the field best driver Rating and the 7th best Total speed Ranking 'm getting! Ready to analyze this weekend, it could very well be a one-dominator build Bowman... The best History and the 7th best Total speed Ranking to ifantasyrace.com, McClure high. Could very well be a top five and legitimately ran as high as 2nd Michigan... Jones: -105 Blaney while leading on lap 158, Larson ran out of fuel Fantasy Racing Tips not! Of the NASCAR Cup Series season ( 3:00 p.m very many intermediate tracks last year but... Page is for informational purposes only running in the league while the defense is ranked 62nd had!